This year, under the influence of multiple macroeconomic and supply-demand factors, copper prices, after fluctuating at the beginning of the year, started to rise steadily in March and reached a historical high in May. A detailed review of this year's copper price trend can be divided into four phases:
Early Year to Early March - Sideways Movement: During this period, both Shanghai copper and LME copper remained in a narrow trading range, with the range between 67,700–69,950 yuan/ton and 8,189–8,642 USD/ton, respectively. During this time, the spot refining/ smelting fees for copper continued to decline.
Early March to Mid-May - Continuous Rise: The shortage of copper concentrates continued to exacerbate, and smelting fees kept falling. On March 8, Codelco's Radomiro Tomic copper mine suspended operations due to a production accident, and the Brazilian court temporarily suspended the operating license for Vale's Sossego copper mine. These events caused further disruptions to copper concentrate supply. Meanwhile, the smelting fees quickly dropped to their lowest levels since 2019. The copper smelting companies’ meeting in Beijing and the March 28 agreement to reduce production further confirmed the tightness in copper mine supply. In April, ICSG revised down its forecast for the growth of copper concentrate production in its Copper Market Forecast 2024-2025. With multiple positive factors at play, copper prices continued to rise. In mid-May, COMEX copper saw a short squeeze, pushing copper prices to a historic high.
Mid-May to Early August - Fluctuating Adjustment: After reaching a historic high, copper prices began to fluctuate and correct. According to ICSG, global refined copper monthly consumption in May and June 2024 decreased by 4.26% and 6.68% year-on-year, respectively. High copper prices suppressed demand to some extent.
Since Early August - High-Level Fluctuations: After the correction, copper prices stopped falling in early August and have remained fluctuating at high levels since then.
Outlook for Copper Trading: Despite the current sluggish spot trading of copper concentrates, sources expect that trading activity will pick up in X month as market conditions stabilize and the supply-demand situation continues to evolve.
