The re-election of Donald Trump as the President of the United States has sparked significant debate in economic communities, particularly regarding the global export industry. Known for his protectionist stance, President Trump’s "America First" policy has posed and will continue to pose various challenges to international trade.
1. Increased Tariff Measures
During his previous term, high tariff policies put immense pressure on many countries and businesses, especially in the agricultural and manufacturing sectors. The imposition of high tariffs to limit imports and protect domestic enterprises is expected to remain a key strategy.
2. Risks to Trade Agreements
Policies to withdraw from international trade agreements, such as the TPP, during his earlier term have significantly impacted import-export activities among trading partners. For countries heavily reliant on the U.S. market, the sudden loss of tariff advantages and market access poses substantial risks.
3. Volatility in Financial Liberalization
The global export industry also faces challenges from adjustments in financial and monetary policies. Fluctuations in the U.S. dollar and interest rates may place significant burdens on developing nations as international trade transactions often rely on the U.S. dollar.
4. Supply Chain Challenges
Policies that establish barriers to supply chains from China and other major U.S. trading partners could create difficulties for the global supply chain. This, in turn, could exert upward pressure on the prices of raw materials and scarce resources.
5. Forecast for Vietnam's Export Industry
Vietnam faces the risk of being labeled as a “currency manipulator” or accused of engaging in unlawful financial practices. Additionally, the loss of tariff advantages in exporting textiles, footwear, and agricultural products is a looming threat.
In summary, many businesses are preparing long-term strategies to adapt to a business environment projected to become more challenging with President Trump’s return to the White House.
